Virtual Wargames Connectivity 20240824.

quotes: Extension neglect is a type of cognitive bias which occurs when the sample size is ignored when its determination is relevant.

The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the individuating information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case).

A fallacy is the use of invalid or otherwise faulty reasoning in the construction of an argument that may appear to be well-reasoned if unnoticed.

Fallacies in the language or formal fallacies (in dictionem):
Equivocation
Amphiboly
Composition
Division
Accent
Figure of speech or form of expression
Fallacies not in the language or informal fallacies (extra dictionem):
Accident
Secundum quid
Irrelevant conclusion
Petitio principii
False cause
Affirming the consequent
Fallacy of many questions

The fallacy of division is an informal fallacy that occurs when one reasons that something that is true for a whole must also be true of all or some of its parts.

end quotes.

Well, well well, my Professor Knödel always said in statistics you always have to calculate the error you are making : e. g. if an event has a 90% probability, there is a 10% error probability.

It’s great to have a minority leader instead of being ignored.


Disclaimer.

Leave a comment